Xenophon, you are a dead set idiot

There's been more than enough proof over the years that this South Australian senator is just a headline seeker when it comes to his views against gambling. I admired his stance against pokies (slots/fruit machines in other parts of the world) which are in plague proportions in most of Australia, but his credibility, if he had any left, is seriously undermined when he gets involved in an argument like this.

MP calls for ban on rate-rise betting

Betting on the Reserve Bank's interest rates decision should be banned because it ''invites trouble'' and opens the door to corruption, Independent Nick Xenophon says.

The Age yesterday reported that a stand-off between the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and online betting agency Centrebet, over betting on interest rate rises, had ended.

''Millions of Australians are affected by interest rate movements. It is not a game for families; for many families it can be the difference between paying the bills or not,'' Senator Xenophon told The Age.

Never mind the fact that you might get a bet on for a couple of grand on this market, whereas the impact of rate rise on the banks and the economy at large would be in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Never mind the fact that financial institutions offer facilities to hedge against interest rate changes, effectively the same as betting on it with a bookie.
Never mind the fact that Betfair have been betting on this market in Australia for several years now without the press interest...

It was in the papers yesterday so Mr Headline Seeker has to get in for his two cents' worth. Well Mr X, there's a reason why Australia doesn't have 2c pieces anymore, because they are totally worthless!

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Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

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