German govt in cuckoo land

For several years, there has been much debate about German law and the licensing of sports betting. It's a country divided up into provinces which often have conflicting laws. Most, if not all, of the 'legal' online betting licences in Germany stem from former East German regions which were somehow able to offer things which weren't allowed elsewhere in the unified country. Now with the EU pushing hard for all member states to allow/regulate online gambling, Germany decided it had better follow suit before it got dragged through the courts forever and a day. And this is what they come up with....

Germany’s non-ratified sports betting proposals

7 five-year licences to be issued

16.67% turnover tax

Live betting but only on final result. No in-play

Only land based casinos would be able to operate online casino

Sports betting advertising only allowed on or in sports arenas and club shirts and not on television

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France is the most recent big European nation to build a regulatory structure for online gambling, and it has been condemned as a failure by all and sundry. The whole point of setting up a licensing regime is to regulate it and stop money being bet with firms outside the licensing arrangement. But France introduced an 8.5% turnover tax, plus sports rights fees which bring the total tax rate up to about 11%. Think about that as part of the over-round on a market - on the big football leagues of Europe, few bookies bet over 110% these days. If you were betting a two-way market such as under/over 2.5 goals, that equates to 1.8/1.8 before you consider all the other operating costs. But the French don't stop there. They have another body, the TRJ, meddling where they don't belong, enforcing a rule that bookmakers can pay back no more than 85% of their turnover (117% if you prefer the over-round way of reading percentages). So bookies are forced to make a profit (it's not as easy as it looks folks, believe me) which means they have to offer markets with ridiculously high margins and just rely on mugs losing constantly. Any punters with a clue bet elsewhere and can you blame them?

Germany haven't bothered to read the figures which show how badly the French system is going. Instead they've decided to DOUBLE the rate of turnover tax, with no word on what they will do regarding payments to sports bodies. Germany doesn't have a strong betting culture. Racing is very niche and sports betting isn't heavily in the local psyche, although it has improved in recent years with the likes of bwin having their logo everywhere across Europe.

By the time you account for operating costs and the turnover tax, German punters will be looking at prices on a tennis match of 1.6/1.6. Not even Canada's ProLine or state monopolies in other countries can offer prices that disgraceful!

All this will do is send more money from German citizens to other countries - not such a brilliant idea. Share prices for bwin.party and Betfair dropped sharply today in wake of the news.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

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