next Aston Villa manager market

Just a short post to keep the site updated, so people don't think I've fallen off the face of the Earth...

I love Next Manager markets on Betfair, the fluctuations are all based on hearsay and rumours, so the moves can be quite volatile, which is also due to limited liquidity available too. Let's look at some of the logic behind the key men in the market:

Sven-Goran Eriksson: High 13, Low 2.0, current 3.0

One of the biggest media tarts there is, throws his hat in the ring every time a job comes up which might pay plenty. Did a decent job at Man City, but since then has been more of a comedy act. Still, it would be funny to give more ammunition to the funny people behind Special1TV.

Bob Bradley: High 15, Low 4.0, Current 6.6

He's American, the owner's American, so therefore he must want him for the job... Can't see it personally, would be a huge step up from anything he has done in the past, and I could only see it devaluing the club - which the owner would recognise as a bad move.

Gareth Southgate: High 40, Low 7, Current 20

Ex-Villa player, did OK at Middlesbrough with limited resources. Very few managers excel at their first appointment, did enough to show he has talent at the caper, but would he be better off going to the Championship for a while and proving himself?

Jurgen Klinsmann: High 30, Low 8, Current 16

Has played in the Premier League, was manager of the German national team for a while as well as Bayern Munich, and has spent plenty of time in the US, so should be known to the owner. Could do worse.

Martin Jol: High 42, Low 7.6, Current 25

Just pledged his allegiance to Ajax after almost taking the Fulham job, so why would he do an about-turn just a couple of weeks later?

Kevin McDonald: High 50, Low 10, Current 14.5

Caretaker manager, so always in with a chance. Must admit I've never heard of him before so don't know how well regarded he is in coaching circles. Take note of Betfair's rules on these markets -

an individual appointed by Aston Villa FC on an ‘interim’, ‘caretaker’, ‘temporary’ (including an appointment described as ‘to the end of the season’) or similar basis who remains manager in that capacity for at least 10 completed consecutive English League games (including over the course of more than a single season), will be considered to have been appointed as the next first team manager for the purpose of this market and Betfair will settle the market accordingly on that person.

I'd be surprised if AVFC took that long to appoint someone, but you never know.

Mark Hughes: High 75, Low 14, Current 20

Just appointed at Fulham, why on earth would he leave before the season had even started?

Alan Curbishley: High 48, Low 4, Current 34

Highly-regarded back in his Charlton days but stocks have gone downhill since. Don't see him as one to pick up a top-half of the EPL job.

Slaven Bilic: High 70, Low 8, Current 60

Bigger media tart than Eriksson, throws his hat into the ring every time a decent job in Britain is available. And still yet to be taken seriously by any club.

Paul Lambert: High 120, Low 17, Current 24

Took Norwich to promotion from League 1 last season, has impressed in his time at Wycombe, Colchester and Norwich. Young manager on the way up.

And then there's the news this morning that Steve Coppell has quit Bristol city, thus his name has to go onto the list, at least for rumours.

So who will get it? I don't know, but I'll be busy trading the prices as the rrumours keep coming in...

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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