Skip to main content

Nobel Peace Prize goes to Obama, but why?

Beware when betting on awards and prizes where votes are cast by a committee or the general public - all logic can potentially go out the window!

Has he got it for “Not being George W”?

In a word, yes. I'm sure he will probably be worthy of that prize in due course, but he's hardly had time to do anything on a world stage apart from try to bail out his own busted economy.

Obama was 25/1 at Ladbrokes with hardly any takers. Whenever it comes to betting on an award where people have to vote for it, be it the Nobel Peace Prize, Mercury Music Award, Man of the Match in a sports event, Big Brother eviction etc, you must consider the psychology of those making the votes and how much influence they have. Sometimes voters can just be blinded by the celebrity status or headlines around one person. Other times, they vote to an agenda - to get a certain player chosen in a representative team or to appeal to a particular audience. Any awards on the BBC for example are heavily-biased towards the demographic of the standard BBC viewer rather than a Sun reader.

While some might discard these markets immediately as serious betting propositions, I don't see these as any harder than trying to unravel a horse race like the Cambridgeshire (40 runner handicap race). You just need to think like the people who are voting and understand where they are coming from.

That said, I find it very surprising Obama won, but to be honest I hadn't heard of most of the other contenders, so I have no idea how strong or weak the field was...
Labels:

Comments

  1. Peter Webb10 October 2009 at 07:24

    I looks to me like an insurance policy. Obama has stated some clear intentions but by awarding the prize he now has a responsibility to follow through on his rhetoric?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cassini11 October 2009 at 22:09

    The date for nominations was two weeks after Obama's inauguration, so there is no way this award was for his accomplishments. I think it should be seen as an award for his intentions, and as a big sigh of relief that after 8 years of Bush's bullying tactics, the USA finally has a leader who understands the importance of diplomacy in the 21st century. The competition wasn't much this year either, but it was still quite a surprise.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Scott12 October 2009 at 04:55

    Thanks for that Cassini, I wasn't aware of the nomination date. That makes it even more fanciful that he deserved it and there wasn't a political agenda behind it...

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,
Post a Comment
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur
14 comments
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more