Istomin and Crivoi in more fishy matches

Last week against Crivoi in Bastad, he turned up injured and put in little effort. Now the same thing is happening again in Indianapolis, against an even weaker player in Kevin Kim. Kim backed from 2.34 down as low as 1.10. I dare say bookies won't be covering his first-round matches for much longer...

Crivoi vs Brands also looked very fishy today. The market went sharply against Crivoi in the hour before play started (1.74 to 2.24), then after winning the first set and going a break up in the second, he was still only marginal favourite (1.9). But, he had traded as low as 1.3, which suggests injury was involved. There were a couple of long breaks between activity on the scoreboard which suggests treatment from the physio - but, as commented by a colleague, that would be part of the script anyway if the match was arranged. Brands wins 4-6 6-4 6-1, not a surprising result on the cold form, but the betting movements were much different.

The ATP could have something serious on their hands if they don't act fast, that's four suspicious matches in a week.

UPDATE: Istomin v Kim match just plain odd. Istomin favourite at 4-4 in the second set despite losing the first. Serving at 3-3 in the final set, he is matched as low at 1.15. Based on pre-match prices before the heavy betting game in, that's still odd. Is the match fixed or are there just people with a hell of a lot money influencing the market AS IF it's fixed....???

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog