Skip to main content

Wimbledon day 2 action

Another day without any real inspiration, but a few favourites with queries over them...

Dokic - wins this easily if fit, unfortunately that's half the battle for her.

Hanescu have come in for steady support against Navarro. He doesn't have much of a game for grass and the Spaniard did play well at Rosmalen last week, but we saw several players (Dancevic, Tanasugarn, Wickmayer) with great form from last week crumble yesterday.

Kvitova hasn't done much on grass before but has good results indoors and on carpet. Kirilenko just ain't much good away from clay, 1-6 here. Kvitova first-up after ankle injury though.

Sevastova came through qualifying well and I've been following her progress closely all year. She has bit of a future I think and the Bondarenko sisters are incredibly inconsistent.

Voegele is a handy player and faces Venus Williams on centre court. Struggle to see her winning, but Venus often has a bit of a wobble in R1. Games handicap or to win first set might be worth a play here. I've backed her to win first set at 8.5.

Dimitrov is destined for stardom and plays Kunitsyn who isn't that great. But the kid (reigning junior champ) already has his knees taped, bit of a concern.

I was impressed with Istomin at Queen's and Eastbourne but he has come up quite short against Fognini who will give him a battle, despite a poor grass history.

Melzer 3-0 has been backed off the boards today. Odesnik just doesn't bother with grass, only one previous match on the surface. Melzer has been receiving treatment for a back injury recently though.

Chakvetadze is a headcase and crumbles under any form of pressure. Lisicki is a very good player, just yet to find her feet on grass. I think she can push her today.

Keothavong surely can't lose like a normal British woman today against a very poor player in Patricia Mayr.

Pavel has shortened into favouritism against lucky loser Alves. Hmm, who to back - a bloke with chronic back problems or a bloke with a shocking grass record and couldn't even get through a run of poor opponents in quals? Leave me out...

Some people have been tipping C.Rochus today to beat Cuevas, f&#$ knows why. He's gunning for eight straight R1 losses here! Cuevas at least took a set off Dent in qualifying, his first-ever recorded grass tournament.

Gulbis is my lay of the day. Having a woeful year, just 9-16 win loss, apparently focusing on long-term strength and fitness rather than winning matches. Which means his coordination and touch will be out of whack, particularly since he's a shotmaker rather than a grinder. The Italian qualifier has plated a lot of lower level events on grass before, it's a big step up for him, but at least we know he loves the surface.

Stepanek is reportedly OK after a recent ankle injury. His record here has been OK but I think he has come up a little short against Falla, a left-handed Colombian who has gone well here over the years. Could be a shock here.

Kiefer playing Santoro for the tenth time, trails 3-6 on h2h but has won three in a row. Concern is whether he is fit after abominal injury in Halle a fortnight ago. Market seems to suggest he is fine.

Ferrero v Youzhny looks a tight one. I lean to the Russian mostly due to his consistency here over the years. Should be a good match to trade, can see it going the distance.

I've backed Ghedin, Lisicki, Voegele (win first set) and Sevastova today.

Good luck!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...