Skip to main content

day 8 action at Wimbledon

Great result on Saturday courtesy of Lisicki, unfortunately the two men didn't offer a squeak. Onto Monday...

Teenage American qualifier Oudin has come from a set down in all three rds so far, which shows a great deal of determniation, a trait often lacking on the women's tour. I'm yet to catch any of her matches live so I'll be making a point of doing so tomorrow. Radwanska played a defensive game against Li, just hitting soft shots back and watching the Chinese player self-destruct. Just a watch match for me, but I'll probably lay Radwanska if she goes a set up purely on the Oudin resilience factor.

Azarenka has dropped just five points on first serve in two and a half matches. Incredible stat. She faces Petrova who beat her here in two breakers last yr. The Russian needs to play a lot better than she did against Dulko, but you know she can from her earlier rounds.

Ivanovic showed her best form in months against Stosur, if she lived up to that form, she could stretch Venus.

Mauresmo has the grasscourt brain and experience to cater for Safina, but the prices have this factored in. On any other surface, the gap would be a lot wider.

Berdych vs Roddick could be a cracking match if they keep up their form from previous rounds. I can never catch Berdych, he has unbeatable streaks and then looks ordinary the next week.

Looks like a trading day for me tomorrow in quite a few matches, we shouldn't be seeing too many cakewalks now we are into the ronud of 16. Best outsider of the day is Mauresmo but the value is gone.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...