tips for Saturday

Wozniacki (4.3) v Jankovic - the Danish girl is a former junior champion here and making big in-roads this year. Jankovic hasn't looked as dominant this week and her arduous schedule over the past two years will start taking its toll soon.

Peng (2.18) v Kudryavtseva - the Chinese player is very good, don't get carried away with the Russian's win over Sharapova. Maria was awful and players ranked >100 will often pull off a big win and then suffer a big let-down in the very next match.

Haas (3.4) v Murray - why is this guy such a big price? Oh yeah, he's playing the British superstar who can't possibly be beaten. Yeah right. Their record is 1-1 with the latest result going to Haas. The German is a very dangerous player when his body is right and he's great value in this tight clash.

Youzhny (2.46) v Stepanek - can't see why there's such a big gap in price here. Stepanek was taken to five sets by Troicki who isn't that good, and he's coming off a recent rib injury. Youzhny took five sets to beat Galvani who had come through qualifying. They are 17th and 16th seeds respectively and the record is split at 2-2. The Russian at the price for me.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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