no such thing as a certainty

A great weekend of sport and more evidence that there is no such thing as a certainty in sports betting.

The Superbowl - New England were undefeated all season, going for history trying to emulate the 1972 Dolphins etc, and were strong 12.5pt favourites. The Pats took the lead inside the last two minutes and looked set to win by just a few points... and then along came Eli Manning who threw the Giants to a shock victory.

Six Nations rugby - England, supposedly the second best team in the world after losing in the final of the World Cup last October, were strong favourites against Wales, and led 19-3 early in the second half. Tens of thousands were wagered on them at the lowest Betfair price possible, 1.01 (risking £100 to win a single pound), but it was the punters laying that price who were celebrating. A remarkable Welsh comeback saw them triumph 26-19 and the England backers (1.24 before the start of the match) feeling very sick.

Tottenham v Man Utd - with the last kick of the match, Man Utd got out of jail, claiming the late equaliser. Spurs were matched for plenty at 1.01 and 1.02 again, money-buyers trying to win a penny for every pound and getting burnt big time!

No sympathy for people taking such stupid prices - there is no such thing as a certainty, and the time you really need that one to win, no matter how far ahead they seem to be, it will turn around and bite you!

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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