Skip to main content

the Australian Open finals

Women

Maria Sharapova has been in dominant form this fortnight, flogging Henin in straight sets and then taking care of a broken-down Jankovic in the semi-final. She needed to be on her game early on, facing former no.1 Davenport in R2, so to maintain that form for a fortnight is an excellent effort. Her shoulder injury worries of last year seem to be gone and her serve is now a major threat again.

Ana Ivanovic hasn't looked in quite as dominant form, but she has reached another Grand Slam final. A 0-6 start against Hantuchova wasn't promising, but she turned that around to progress to the final. Melbourne is like a second home to her, she has family there and the locals have really taken to her.

The slate currently stands at 2-2, with no match going the distance (one injury retirement in 2nd set). The odds are heavily favouring Sharapova, a little too far in my opinion. Odds of 1.25 (1/4) on Betfair, represent an 80% likelihood of her winning - it can't possibly be that one-sided. Ivanovic looks great value at the other side of that (5 or 4/1).

Men

Not exactly the final we were expecting! Novak Djokovic expelled those demons from his US Open final loss by thumping Roger Federer in straight sets and is a short price to claim his first Grand Slam title. Having been to a Grand Slam final once before, and with several tournament wins last year, you'd expect him to be a strong favourite. His record is 7-3 in tour finals and he is yet to drop a set in this tournament. Impressive.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has turned into a phenomenon. The most dangerous player in the draw outside the seedings surprised a few by taking out Andy Murray in the first round, but the momentum hasn't slowed down, taking down Gasquet, Youzhny and Nadal en route to his first, not just Slam final, but his first ATP Tour final! His record in finals along the way is extremely impressive, 15-2, including challengers and satellites. I must admit I thought his game was a bit one-dimensional before this tournament but that has been blown out of the water.

I hope this is a great match. There hasn't been a five-set final in Melbourne since 1988, it's about time we had another. But I think Tsonga's dream run has to end somewhere. Djokovic deserves to win a Grand Slam, he improved massively last year and now has the belief that he can compete with Federer and Nadal. Djokovic to win and a Serbian double for the weekend, but I don't think either are good things.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...