Sport is made for betting

This is the fourth and final piece of my Melbourne Cup preview. See links below for the rest of the preview. The Lexus Melbourne Cup 2025 Of AU$10,910,000 Group 1 Handicap for 3yo and up. Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne 1500 local time, 0400 GMT Earlier pieces with runner-by-runner comments The Visitors - The Expats - The Locals SUMMARY Weather - this is the big talking point. Monday and Tuesday will be wet in Melbourne, but are we talking a gentle soak or a proper storm? Opinions vary and every time I look at the BOM forecast (Bureau of Meteorology), it seems to have changed a bit. Accordingly, the track manager has decided to leave the watering, meaning the track will end up in the Firm 2 range on Sunday (high of 30C) before the rain arrives. Flemington drains very well, the only timing we need to worry about is during the meeting - that's when it soaks into the hoof marks and leads to the track chopping up. At this point, I'm assuming a Firm 2 on Sunday, Soft 5 at the sta...

A preview in four parts - PART III I'll break up the preview into three runner-by-runner sections: The Visitors The Expats The Locals THE LOCALS (by breeding, includes NZ) 14. Half Yours, 53kg (8) 5yo G St Jean - La Gazelle 14:7-3-0, $3,841,840 Track - fourth in Turnbull Stks at only start here, Dist - never run past 2400m where he is 2 from 2. T: Tony & Calvin McEvoy J:Jamie Melham Biggest Result - won 2025 Caulfield Cup The local hope, the Caulfield Cup winner who started a clear favourite there and won without much stress. One would think that automatically makes him favourite for Flemington - but maybe not... At Caulfield everything went right for him. After drawing gate two, he sat one-off the fence, just beyond midfield, behind a rattling pace set by Adelaide River. He had cover in front and inside & out, expending the minimum amount of energy possible. On the turn, Jamie Melham was able to peel off the back of the horses in front, come seven or eight wide to avoid ti...

A preview in four parts - PART II I'll break up the preview into three runner-by-runner sections: The Visitors The Expats The Locals followed by a summary once the barriers are finalised and we have a clearer picture from the Bureau of Meteorology. Note ages are listed by their actual birthdate, rather than the Northern/Southern Hemisphere racing designation. (i.e. Al Riffa isn't automatically six years old when he crosses the equator) THE EXPATS 2. Buckaroo, 57kg (12) 6yo G Fastnet Rock - Roheryn 30:5-6-5, $3,446,148 Track - 3:0-1-0 Distance - ninth in last year's Cup T: Chris Waller J: Craig Williams Biggest Result - ran second in last weekend's Cox Plate, beaten a nose by Via Sistina. Ran a gallant ninth in last year's race after drawing 20 and coming widest on the turn. His run petered out in the last 200m but was probably entitled to, covering the extra ground. Arrives here in great form, getting within a nose of Via Sistina in the Cox Plate, albeit with not...

A preview in four parts - PART I It's the big race on Tuesday, my Christmas Day, and the race which stops the sane part of the nation in Australia. Doing a proper job of the preview can't be just left to one rushed post on the weekend, so this year I've pulled my finger out expanded the coverage to provide greater detail. At the time of publishing, the field isn't finalised but we have a good idea of almost all the runners. What we don't have is any certainty on the weather which right now could be ugly and it could just blow over. I'll break up the preview into three runner-by-runner sections: The Visitors The Expats The Locals followed by a summary once the barriers are finalised and we have a clearer picture from the Bureau of Meteorology. Note ages are listed by their actual birthdate, rather than the Northern/Southern Hemisphere racing designation. (i.e. Al Riffa isn't automatically six years old when he crosses the equator) 1. Al Riffa, 59kg (Barrier ...

The scandal that was bound to happen has been all over the news in recent days. As per any betting scandal, this is why the industry needs to be regulated - without it, these things still happen, they just don’t get found.  US sports are ripe for picking because of their obsession with player props. You’ll hear calls for ‘why not just offer the overs?’ but that then allows the book to apply huge  and invisible margins because they won’t offer both sides - so then customers just get ripped off even more.  And any restrictions you impose on licensed books just opens the door to the black market/offshore books that have always been massive in the US market. There’s been plenty written about this already, much of it overblown nonsense from people who don’t understand it in enough depth. One voice that should be respected though is Nate Silver and his Substack post is very well constructed. https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/the-nba-gambling-scandal-explained

THE LADBROKES COX PLATE The Valley, Melbourne AU$6.05m, Group 1, WFA 1740 local time, 0740 BST A very interesting race this year. Perhaps not the finest field in history, not the biggest, but it is the last to be run at The Valley (formerly known as Moonee Valley) under the current configuration. The whole place will be knocked down or ripped up in order to completely rebuild the place with a different track orientation and a more traditional length of home straight. It will all change... A year ago, Via Sistina blew them away in one of the world's best performances on the year. This season, at least down in Melbourne, she's not quite so invincible. Races haven't been run to suit, she's drawn inside each time, she's been running OK without being the superstar that scared off any international rivals. Third behind Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva then third behind Sir Delius in the Turnbull, after opening her campaign with a win in the Winx Stakes in Sydney. Perhaps...

Before the creation of the northern slot race, this day was always known as Caulfield Cup Day. Hopefully no Sweet Caroline here... CAULFIELD CUP 2400m, Group 1 Handicap Of AU$5million 1715 local, 0715 BST 1. Vauban - after two years of visiting and flopping n the Melbourne Cup, he was bought by locals and sent to the Waterhouse & Bott camp. Has shown good fresh form, winning the G3 Sky High in the autumn and finishing third in the G2 Chelmsford behind Lindemann and Sir Delius six weeks ago, but has tapered off later in each campaign. Didn't have much luck in the Metropolitan behind Royal Supremacy last time, meets that horse 2kg better off for 1.36L defeat. I think he could have bullocked his way out into space in that race, but Tim Clark probably wasn't too keen on risking a suspension that would put him out of Everest day Is classy enough to win but at the weights, we need to see his very best. Jockey upgrade to Blake Shinn, topweights often run well here but can he get ...

The Everest Randwick, WFA, Group 1 Slot Race 1200m, Sat 1615 local, 0615 BST Of AU$20m, but only $7m to the winner. The sprint race of the year returns to Randwick with the best horse in the world dominating the market. The Aussie-bred, expat Aussie-trained, Ka Ying Rising has arrived in town and deservedly has all the locals running scared. So much so that some twat last weekend created a fake social media acct to spread rumours he might be scratched to blatantly manipulate the markets. The sheep backed everything else in the market at the ‘value’ prices while I’ll bet London to a brick that forensic investigation will absolutely confirm the higher odds on KYR were taken by those involved. But Racing NSW just loves the free publicity behind it - not sure Victorian stewards would look upon it in the same way.  It’s a sellout crowd at Randwick but that’s like selling out an English cricket ground compared to the MCG - well done but it’s still not even half the crowd of Melbourne Cu...